Energy Overview
National Economics' energy group has three major areas of work:
- preparation of forecasts of Australian oil, gas, coal, uranium production, and of gas, electricity (by state) and petroleum product (nationally) demands in the short, medium and long terms;
- undertaking of commissioned consultancy and provision of advice in the energy field; and
- a twice a year energy conference, at which National Economics' energy forecasts, international energy trends and special energy topics are presented.
The National Economics energy group has, through this work, built up considerable expertise in the economic analysis of energy issues in Australia and internationally.
Accordingly, National Economics is in an excellent position to respond to the requirements of firms, individuals, government agencies, etc. for economic analysis of energy issues, energy forecasts, and detailed information on such issues as the impact of government policies and the prospects for firms in particular commercial activities.
National Economics' forecasting and energy consulting work is underpinned by a close surveillance of the Australian and international energy scenes, large scale data collection and compilation, and use of National Economics' energy model. This model, described in more detail in the section entitled "National Economics' energy modelling systems", has the capability of projecting energy demands for electricity, gas and oil by major ASIC industry categories and by state or region over 1-30 year periods. An energy use technology component within the modelling system enables changes in energy service efficiencies and costs to be incorporated in the demand projections. The modelling also contains a sub-model of the electricity industry which permits scheduling of generation additions and retirements to be varied, and provides a range of outputs, including installed capacity, energy generated, energy sales and fuels consumed.
National Economics has also undertaken studies concerned with energy related environmental issues. In undertaking this work National Economics personnel have developed skills, experience and knowledge in the areas of:
- activities likely to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus promote/increase the enhanced greenhouse effect;
- activities with the potential to mitigate the enhanced greenhouse effect;
- identifying and quantifying the economic and social impacts of both the above sets of activities;
- policy instruments which could be applied to mitigate the enhanced greenhouse effect and other environmental problems;
- international and national developments in environmental policy areas;
- monitoring and evaluating progress towards the attainment of goals and targets for mitigating environmental problems; and
- externally concept analysis, quantification of externalities.